重症胰腺炎血液净化患者并发ICU获得性凝血病的风险预测模型构建
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上海市科技计划项目(22JC1403600)


Construction of a risk prediction model for ICU-acquired coagulopathy in severe acute pancreatitis patients undergoing blood purification
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    摘要:

    目的 探讨重症胰腺炎(SAP)血液净化(BP)患者并发ICU获得性凝血病(ICU-AC)的风险,并构建预测模型。方法 纳入2022年1月—2024年12月上海长征医院重症监护病房(ICU)收治的282例SAP行BP治疗的患者的临床资料行回顾性研究,根据是否并发ICU-AC分为ICU-AC组与非ICU-AC组。多因素Logistic回归分析确定SAP患者行BP合并ICU-AC的危险因素并构建预测模型。使用一致性指数(C-index)、校准图和决策曲线分析(DCA)评估回归方程预测模型的预测准确性、校准和临床效用。结果 282例SAP患者在ICU期间ICU-AC发生率19.50%; ICU-AC组D-二聚体、降钙素原(PCT)水平、急性生理与慢性健康Ⅱ评分(APACHE Ⅱ)评分、序贯器官衰竭(SOFA)评分、感染性休克、机械通气、管活性药物使用例数占比高于非ICU-AC组,PLT、FIB水平、滤器寿命低于非ICU-AC组(均P<0.05)。APACHE Ⅱ评分、PLT、D-二聚体、感染性休克、PCT、血管活性药物使用、滤器寿命是SAP行BP患者并发ICU-AC的危险因素(P<0.05)。构建基于Logistic回归〖JP2〗危险因素的预测模型,经验证该预测模型显示良好的鉴别力 [曲线下面积(AUC)为0.893,P<0.05]、校准度(C-index=-0.902,平均绝对误差=0.003)。决策曲线分析表明该预测模型可以提供较高临床益处。结论 APACHE Ⅱ评分、PLT、D-二聚体、感染性休克、PCT、血管活性药物使用、滤器寿命是影响SAP患者行BP治疗并发ICU-AC的危险因素,基于上述危险构建预测模型具有较高的预测准确性和临床适用性

    Abstract:

    Objective To investigate the risk of ICU-acquired coagulopathy (ICU-AC) in patients with severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) undergoing blood purification (BP) and develop a predictive model. Methods A retrospective observational study was conducted on 282 SAP patients treated with BP in the ICU of Shanghai Changzheng Hospital from January 2022 to December 2024. Patients were divided into ICU-AC and non-ICU-AC groups based on the occurrence of ICU-AC. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify risk factors for ICU-AC in SAP patients undergoing BP and construct a predictive model. The model’s predictive accuracy, calibration, and clinical utility were evaluated using the concordance index (C-index), calibration plots, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Results The incidence of ICU-AC among SAP patients during ICU stay was 19.50%. APACHE Ⅱ score, platelet count (PLT), D-dimer, septic shock, procalcitonin (PCT), vasoactive drug use, and filter lifespan were identified as independent risk factors for ICU-AC in SAP patients undergoing BP (P<0.05). A predictive model based on logistic regression analysis demonstrated strong discriminative ability [area under the curve (AUC)=0.893, P<0.05], good calibration (C-index=0.902, mean absolute error =0.003), and significant clinical benefit as shown by DCA. Conclusion APACHE Ⅱ score, PLT, D-dimer, septic shock, PCT, vasoactive drug use, and filter lifespan are risk factors for ICU-AC in SAP patients undergoing BP. The predictive model developed based on these factors exhibits high predictive accuracy and clinical applicability

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-06-18
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