基于血脂和炎症因子的帕金森病早期预测模型构建与验证
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新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金资助项目(2023D01C80);新疆自治区中央引导地方财政项目(2023D01C80)


Construction and validation of an early prediction model for Parkinson's disease based on lipids and inflammatory factors
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    摘要:

    目的 探讨血脂和炎症因子与帕金森病(PD)早期诊断的相关性,构建并验证其风险预测模型。方法 选取2022年3月—2024年12月新疆维吾尔自治区人民医院的96例PD早期(Hoehn-Yahr分级1级)患者作为PD组,以同期100例年龄、性别匹配的健康体检者作为对照组。比较两组受试者的血脂和炎症因子水平差异,采用Lasso回归和二元Logistic回归分析筛选PD早期的独立影响因素,构建列线图预测模型,并通过ROC曲线、校准曲线和Hosmer-Lemeshow检验评估模型的效能。结果 PD组患者的TC、LDL-C、IL-1β水平显著低于对照组,而肿瘤坏死因子-α(TNF-α)、IL-6水平显著升高(均P<0.05)。多因素Logistic回归分析显示,IL-6水平升高是PD早期的独立危险因素(OR=2.977,P=0.001),而TC、LDL-C和IL-1β水平升高为保护因素(均P<0.05)。基于上述指标构建的预测模型具有较高的诊断效能,ROC曲线下面积为0.958(95% CI:0.933~0.983),敏感度和特异度分别为0.896和0.890。结论 IL-6 升高是PD早期危险因素,而IL-1β、TC和LDL-C具有保护作用;基于这些指标构建的预测模型为早期筛查提供了可靠的客观依据,未来需扩大验证以优化临床应用

    Abstract:

    Objective To investigate the correlation of lipids and inflammatory factors with early diagnosis of Parkinson's disease (PD), and construct and validate its risk prediction model. Methods A total of 96 patients with early-stage Parkinson's disease (Hoehn-Yahr stage 1) from March 2022 to December 2024 were selected as the PD group, and 100 age- and gender-matched healthy individuals underwent physical examinations as the control group. Differences in lipid and inflammatory factor levels between the two groups were compared. Lasso regression and binary logistic regression analysis were used to screen for independent risk factors for early-stage PD, and a nomogram prediction model was constructed. The model's performance was evaluated using ROC curves, calibration curves, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. Results Patients in the PD group had significantly lower levels of total cholesterol (TC), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) compared to the control group, while levels of tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), interleukin-6 (IL-6) were elevated, and the level of in interleukin-1 bota (IL-1β) was decreased (all P<0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that elevated IL-6 levels were an independent risk factor for early PD (OR=2.977, P=0.001), while elevated TC, LDL-C, and IL-1β levels were protective factors (all P<0.05). The predictive model constructed based on the above indicators demonstrated high diagnostic performance, with an area under the ROC curve of 0.958 (95% CI: 0.93~0.983), sensitivity of 0.896, and specificity of 0.890.Conclusion Elevated IL-6 is an early risk factor for PD, while IL-1β, TC, and LDL-C have a protective effect. The predictive model constructed based on these indicators (AUC=0.958) provides a reliable objective basis for early screening. Further validation is needed to optimize its clinical application

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-06-18
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