肺结核抗结核治疗并发肝功能损害的列线图模型建立
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安徽省临床重点专科建设项目[卫科教秘(2017)529号]


Establishment and verification of the nomogram model of initial pulmonary tuberculosis and anti-tuberculosis treatment complicated with liver function impairment
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    目的 探讨肺结核抗结核治疗并发肝功能损害的危险因素,并构建列线图模型。方法 回顾性分析2021年9月—2023年9月我院收治的233例肺结核抗结核患者的临床资料,根据是否发生肝功能损害分为肝损害组(n=35)和非肝损害组(n=198),采用多因素Logistic回归模型,筛选发生肝功能损害的危险因素,并使用R(R3.5.3)软件构建肺结核抗结核治疗并发肝功能损害的列线图风险预警模型,验证其预测效能。结果 233例肺结核抗结核治疗患者中肝功能损害的发生率为15.02%(35/233);肝损害发生时间为2~<4周21例(60.00%),4~<8周9例(25.71%),≥8周5例(14.29%);轻度肝损害19例(54.29%),中度肝损害12例(34.29%),重度肝损害4例(11.43%);多因素Logistic回归分析,结果显示,年龄≥60岁、身体质量指数(BMI)<18.5 kg/m2、营养不良、饮酒、非初治患者及有基础肝病均是肺结核抗结核治疗患者发生肝功能损害的危险因素(P<0.05);bootstrap重复抽样1 000次得到校正曲线,校正曲线与理想曲线基本一致;ROC曲线下面积(AUC)为0.842(95%CI:0.776~0.907)。校准曲线斜率接近1,且Hosmer-Lemeshow拟合优度检验良好(R2=0.337,P=0.670)。表明肺结核抗结核治疗并发肝功能损害的列线图模型具有较高的准确性和可行性。结论 年龄≥60岁、BMI<18.5 kg/m2、营养不良、饮酒、非初治患者及有基础肝病是影响肺结核抗结核治疗并发肝功能损害的危险因素。基于这些因素构建的列线图模型在预测肺结核抗结核治疗并发肝功能损害方面表现出了一定的准确性和可行性,但鉴于样本量相对较小,该模型的预测效能和泛化能力尚需进一步验证和优化

    Abstract:

    Objective To explore the risk factors of antituberculosis treatment and construct a nomogram model. Methods The clinical data of 233 patients with pulmonary tuberculosis and anti-tuberculosis admitted to our hospital from September 2021 to September 2023 were retrospectively analyzed. The patients were divided into liver damage group and non-liver damage group according to whether liver function damage occurred. Multivariate logistic regression model was used to screen the risk factors for liver function damage. And R (R3.5.3) software was used to build a column-graph risk warning model for pulmonary tuberculosis and anti-tuberculosis treatment complicated with liver function damage, and its prediction efficiency was verified. Results Among 233 patients with pulmonary tuberculosis who received anti-tuberculosis treatment, 35 patients developed liver function impairment, and the incidence of liver function impairment was 15.02% (35/233). The occurrence time of liver damage was 2 ~ < 4 weeks in 21 cases (60.00%), 4 ~ <8 weeks in 9 cases (25.71%), and ≥8 weeks in 5 cases (14.29%). There were 19 cases (54.29%) of mild liver damage, 12 cases (34.29%) of moderate liver damage, and 4 cases (11.43%) of severe liver damage. Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that age ≥ 60 years, BMI<18.5 kg/m2, and malnutrition, alcohol consumption, non-treatment-naive patients, and having underlying liver diseases were all risk factors for liver function impairment in patients undergoing anti-tuberculosis treatment for pulmonary tuberculosis (P<0.05); bootstrap repeated sampling 1000 times to obtain the correction curve, which was basically consistent with the ideal curve. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.842 (95%CI:0.776~0.907). The slope of the calibration curve was close to 1, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-fit test was good (R2=0.337, P=0.670). It indicates that the nomogram model of liver function impairment complicated by anti-tuberculosis treatment for pulmonary tuberculosis has high accuracy and feasibility. Conclusion This study initially found that age ≥ 60 years old, BMI<18.5 kg/m2, malnutrition, alcohol consumption, non-initial treatment patients, and underlying liver diseases are risk factors affecting liver function impairment during anti-tuberculosis treatment for pulmonary tuberculosis. The nomogram model constructed based on these factors has demonstrated certain accuracy and feasibility in predicting liver function impairment concurrent with anti-tuberculosis treatment for pulmonary tuberculosis. However, given the relatively small sample size, the predictive efficacy and generalization ability of this model still need further verification and optimization

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-03-19
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