宫颈锥切术至妊娠间隔时间对未足月胎膜早破和新生儿结局的影响及预测分析
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中华预防医学会科研基金支持项目(2018Y13055)


The effect and prediction of the time interval from cervical conectomy to pregnancy on premature rupture of membranes and neonatal outcomes
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    摘要:

    目的 探讨宫颈锥切术至妊娠间隔时间对未足月胎膜早破和新生儿结局的影响和预测作用。方法 回顾性分析我院2019年6月—2022年6月收治的86例既往宫颈锥切术病史单胎初产妇临床资料,收集患者宫颈锥切术至妊娠间隔时间,绘制受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线分析宫颈锥切术至妊娠间隔时间对未足月胎膜早破和新生儿结局的预测作用,采用单因素和Logistic回归模型分析未足月胎膜早破和新生儿结局的影响因素。结果 未足月胎膜早破发生率为38.37%(33/86),ROC曲线分析宫颈锥切术至妊娠间隔时间预测未足月胎膜早破的曲线下面积(AUC)为0.856,约登指数的最大值为0.603,截断值为10.5个月,灵敏度为0.906,特异度为0.697,95%CI 为0.772~0.940。胎膜早破组流产史、妊娠期高血压、羊水过多、冷刀锥刀术(CKC)、胎位异常、宫颈锥切术至妊娠间隔时间<10.5 个月发生率高于非胎膜早破组,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。多因素分析发现CKC(OR=6.596,95%CI:1.287~33.795)、宫颈锥切术至妊娠间隔时间<10.5 个月(OR=28.769,95%CI:5.761~143.671)是未足月胎膜早破独立影响因素(P<0.05)。新生儿不良结局发生率为26.74%(23/86),ROC曲线分析宫颈锥切术至妊娠间隔时间预测新生儿不良结局的AUC为0.804,约登指数的最大值为0.568,截断值为12.5个月,灵敏度为0.698,特异度为0.870,95%CI为0.704~0.905。单因素分析发现,新生儿不良结局组流产史、妊娠期高血压、宫颈锥切术至妊娠间隔时间<12.5 个月、未足月胎膜早破发生率高于非新生儿不良结局组,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。多因素分析发现流产史(OR=4.834,95%CI:1.094~21.367)、妊娠期高血压(OR=16.068,95%CI:2.081~124.046)、宫颈锥切术至妊娠间隔时间<12.5 个月(OR=10.968,95%CI:2.254~53.377)是新生儿不良结局的独立影响因素(P<0.05)。 结论 对于初产妇,当宫颈锥切术后至妊娠间隔小于10.5个月和12.5 个月,分别是未足月胎膜早破和新生儿不良结局的独立危险因素,具有一定的预测作用

    Abstract:

    Objective To investigate the effect and predictive effect of the interval from cervical conectomy to pregnancy on premature rupture of membranes and neonatal outcome. Method The clinical data of 86 single primiparas with a history of cervical conectomy admitted to the 909th Hospital of Joint Logistics Support Force from June 2019 to June 2022 were retrospectively analyzed. The time interval from cervical conectomy to pregnancy was collected. The predictive effect of the time from conectomy and pregnancy on premature rupture of membranes to neonatal outcome was analyzed by the ROC curve. Univariate and Logistic regression models were used to analyze the influencing factors of premature rupture of membranes before term and neonatal outcome. Results The incidence of premature rupture of membranes before term was 38.37% (33/86). The area under the curve (AUC) of ROC curve analysis for predicting preterm premature rupture of membranes was 0.856, the maximum Youden index was 0.603, the optimal cut-off value was 10.5 (month), the sensitivity was 0.906, and the specificity was 0.697 95%CI was 0.772~0.940.The incidence of abortion history, gestational hypertension, hyperamniotic fluid, CKC, fetal position abnormality, cervical conectomy and gestation interval <10.5 months in the premature rupture group was higher than that in the non-premature rupture group (P<0.05), and the difference was statistically significant.Multivariate analysis showed that CKC(OR: 6.596, 95%CI: 1.287~33.795) and the interval from cervical conectomy to gestation <10.5 months (OR: 28.769, 95%CI: 5.761~143.671) were independent influencing factors for premature rupture of membranes (P<0.05). The incidence of adverse outcomes in neonates was 26.74% (23/86).The area under the curve (AUC) of ROC curve analysis for predicting neonatal adverse outcomes was 0.804, the maximum Youden index was 0.568, the cut-off value was 12.5 (months), and the sensitivity was 0.698. The specificity was 0.870 and 95%CI was 0.704~ 0.905. Univariate analysis showed that the incidence of abortion history, gestational hypertension, interval time from cervical conectomy to gestation <12.5 months, and premature rupture of membranes before term in the adverse neonatal outcome group was higher than that in the non-adverse neonatal outcome group (P<0.05), and the difference was statistically significant. Multivariate analysis found history of abortion (OR: 4.834, 95%CI: 1.094~21.367), gestational hypertension (OR: 16.068, 95%CI: 2.081~124.046), and interval from cervical conectomy to gestation <12.5 months (OR: 10.968, 95%CI: 2.254~53.377) were independent influencing factors of neonatal adverse outcomes (P<0.05). Conclusion For primiparous women, when the interval from cervical conectomy to gestation is less than 10.5 months and 12.5 months, respectively, it is an independent risk factor for premature rupture of membranes before term and adverse neonatal outcome, which has a predictive effect

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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-12-19
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