慢性阻塞性肺疾病频发急性加重的临床特点及相关危险因素分析
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河南省医学科技攻关计划联合共建项目 (LHGJ20210504)


Analysis of clinical characteristics and related risk factors of frequent acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease
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    摘要:

    目的 探讨慢性阻塞性肺疾病频发急性加重患者的临床特点及相关危险因素。方法 收集2021年12月—2022年12月于我院住院治疗的281例慢性阻塞性肺疾病急性加重(AECOPD)患者的相关临床资料。并随访其出院1年内的急性加重次数、氧疗、药物治疗及健康情况。将1年内重度急性加重次数≥2次的COPD患者定义为频发急性加重组,1年内重度急性加重次数<2次的COPD患者定义为非频发急性加重组。将两组间对比具有显著差异性(P<0.01)的因素纳入修正Poisson回归分析,筛选出与慢性阻塞性肺疾病频发急性加重相关的独立危险因素。将慢性阻塞性肺疾病频发急性加重的独立危险因素均纳入ROC曲线分析,计算5项指标及其联合预测的概率,并计算各指标的最佳截断值。结果 将单因素分析两组间具有显著差异性(P<0.01)的因素纳入修正Poisson回归分析,结果认为红细胞分布宽度变异系数(RDW-CV)较高(P=0.014,RR=1.088, 95%CI:1.018~1.164 );BMI较低(P=0.007,RR=0.945,95%CI:0.908~0.985);合并2型糖尿病(P=0.012,RR=1.516, 95%CI:1.097~2.095);肺功能GOLD分级较高(P<0.001,RR=1.518, 95%CI:1.219~1.890);年龄较大(P=0.004,RR=1.021, 95%CI:1.006~1.035)是慢性阻塞性肺疾病频发急性加重的独立危险因素。将慢性阻塞性肺疾病频发急性加重的独立危险因素均纳入ROC曲线分析,结果显示BMI较低、肺功能GOLD3级及4级、年龄>65.5岁、RDW-CV>13.25%、合并2型糖尿病是慢性阻塞性肺疾病频发急性加重的独立危险因素。5项指标联合预测的ROC曲线与坐标轴围成面积(AUC)为 0.799,约登指数最大时计算出的灵敏度为74.8%,特异度为72.5%。结论 BMI较低、肺功能GOLD3级及4级、年龄>65.5岁、RDW-CV>13.25%、合并2型糖尿病是慢性阻塞性肺疾病频发急性加重的独立危险因素。基于BMI、肺功能GOLD分级、年龄、RDW-CV、是否合并2型糖尿病等5项联合预测对于慢性阻塞性肺疾病频发急性加重事件具有较良好的预测价值

    Abstract:

    Objective To explore the clinical characteristics and related risk factors of patients with frequent acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.Methods The clinical data of patients hospitalized for acute exacerbation of COPD in the First Affiliated Hospital of Xinxiang Medical University from December 2021 to December 2022 were collected. The frequency of acute exacerbation, oxygen therapy, drug therapy and health status within 1 year after discharge were followed up. Patients with moderate to severe exacerbations of COPD ≥2 times in 1 year were defined as frequent exacerbations (study group), and patients with moderate to severe exacerbations of COPD <2 times in 1 year were defined as non-frequent exacerbations (control group). The factors with significant differences between the two groups (P<0.01) were included in the modified Poisson regression analysis to screen out the independent risk factors related to frequent acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. The independent risk factors of frequent acute exacerbations of COPD were included in the ROC curve analysis, the probability of the five indicators and their combined prediction was calculated, and the best cut-off value of each indicator was calculated. Results The factors with significant differences (P<0.01) between the two groups in univariate analysis were included in the modified Poisson regression analysis, and the results showed that the RDW-CV was higher (P=0.014, RR=1.088, 95%CI: 1.018~1.164); BMI was lower (P=0.007, RR=0.945,95%CI: 0.908~0.985); combined with type 2 diabetes mellitus (P=0.012, RR=1.516, 95% CI: 1.097~2.095); the GOLD grade of lung function was higher (P<0.001, RR=1.518, 95%CI: 1.219~1.890); older age (P=0.004, RR=1.021, 95%CI: 1.006~1.035) were independent risk factor for frequent exacerbations of COPD. The independent risk factors of frequent acute exacerbations of COPD were included in ROC curve analysis, and the results showed that lower BMI, GOLD grade 3 and 4, age >65.5 years, RDW-CV>13.25%, combined with type 2 diabetes mellitus were the independent risk factors of frequent acute exacerbations of COPD. The area around the ROC curve and the coordinate axis (AUC) of the combined prediction of the five indicators was 0.799. The sensitivity and specificity calculated by the maximum Youden index were 74.8% and 72.5%, respectively. Conclusion Lower BMI, lung function GOLD3 and GOLD4, age >65.5 years, RDW-CV>13.25%, and combined with type 2 diabetes mellitus are independent risk factors for frequent acute exacerbations of COPD. The combined prediction based on BMI, GOLD classification of lung function, age, RDW-CV and type 2 diabetes mellitus has a good predictive value for the frequent acute exacerbation events of COPD in the future

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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-12-19
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