服毒至采血时间间隔对急性百草枯中毒患者血百草枯浓度预测价值的影响
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Effect of predictive value of blood paraquat concentrations at different time intervals from ingestion to blood collection
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    摘要:

    目的 探讨服毒至采血时间间隔对血百草枯(PQ)浓度预测价值的影响。方法 回顾性分析2010年10月—2023年5月我院急诊医学部收治的284例接受血液灌流治疗的急性PQ中毒患者,根据患者90 d预后分为生存组(130例)和死亡组(154例)。采用Logistic回归分析筛选急性PQ中毒患者生存的预测因素。根据服毒至采血时间的不同分为≤4.0 h、4.1~8.0 h、8.1~12.0 h及≥12.1 h 4个时间段,通过受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线计算每个时间段内血PQ浓度对患者预后的曲线下面积(AUC)、敏感度及特异度。结果 患者90 d生存率为45.8%(130/284)。与死亡组患者相比,生存组患者年龄小(Z=3.367,P<0.001),白细胞(Z=9.167,P<0.001)、谷丙转氨(Z=2.237,P=0.025)、血肌酐(Z=9.373,P<0.001)、血淀粉酶(Z=2.003,P=0.045)、血乳酸(Z=10.116,P<0.001)及血PQ浓度(Z=11.325,P<0.001)降低,而血钾(Z=7.692,P<0.001)、PaCO2(Z=7.884,P<0.001)及碱剩余(Z=10.506,P<0.001)升高。血PQ浓度与预后呈正相关(r=0.358,P<0.001)。血PQ浓度≤1.0 μg/mL,死亡率为20.0%;浓度为1.1~2.0 μg/mL,死亡率为54.8%;浓度为2.1~3.0 μg/mL,死亡率为64.3%;浓度为3.1~4.0 μg/mL,死亡率为88.9%;浓度≥4.1 μg/mL,死亡率为100%。Logistic回归分析结果显示,年龄(OR=1.036,95%CI:1.009~1.064,P=0.008)、白细胞(OR=1.106,95%CI:1.004~1.219,P=0.042)、血肌酐(OR=1.030,95%CI:1.015~1.045,P<0.001)、血钾(OR=0.318,95%CI:0.125~0.810,P=0.016)、碱剩余(OR=0.737,95%CI:0.625~0.869,P<0.001)及血PQ浓度(OR=2.388,95%CI:1.596~3.573,P<0.001)为患者预后的独立预测因素。ROC曲线分析结果显示,服毒至采血≤4.0 h、4.1~8.0 h、8.1~12.0 h及≥12.1 h的血PQ浓度的AUC分别为0.922(95%CI:0.888~0.956)、0.912(95%CI:0.834~0.990)、0.813(95%CI:0.456~1.000)及0.522(95%CI:0.207~0.837)。结论 对急性PQ中毒患者,血PQ浓度的预测价值受服毒至采血时间的影响,≤40 h内采血测量PQ浓度的预测价值最佳,≥8.1 h时采血测量PQ浓度的预测价值效果差

    Abstract:

    Objective To detect the effect of predictive value of blood paraquat (PQ) concentrations at different time intervals from ingestion to blood collection. Methods 284 patients with acute PQ poisoning from October 2010 to May 2023 from Cangzhou Central Hospital were enrolled in this retrospective study, and divided into survival and dead groups according to a 90-day prognosis. The logistic regression was used to analyze the predictive factors for prognosis of patients with acute PQ poisoning. The time intervals from ingestion to blood collection were four time periods: ≤4.0 h, 4.1~8.0 h, 8.1~12.0 h, and ≥12.1 h. The area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, and specificity of blood PQ concentrations for patient's prognosis at each time interval were calculated by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Results The 90-day survival rate was 45.8% (130/284). Compared with the dead group, the patients in survival group had younger age (Z=3.367, P<0.001), decreased white blood cells (Z=9.167, P<0.001), alanine aminotransferase (Z=2.237, P=0.025), blood creatinine (Z=9.373, P<0.001), blood amylase (Z=2.003, P=0.045), blood lactate (Z=10.116, P<0.001), and blood PQ concentration (Z=11.325, P<0.001), while increased blood potassium (Z=7.692, P<0.001), PaCO2(Z=7.884, P<0.001), and base excess (Z=10.506, P<0.001). Logistic regression analysis showed that age (OR=1.036, 95%CI: 1.009-1.064, P=0.008), white blood cells (OR=1.106, 95%CI: 1.004-1.219, P=0.042), blood creatinine (OR=1.030, 95%CI: 1.015-1.045, P<0.001), blood potassium (OR=0.318, 95%CI: 0.125-0.810, P=0.016), base excess (OR=0.737, 95%CI : 0.625-0.869, P<0.001), and blood PQ concentration (OR=2.388, 95%CI: 1.596-3.573, P<0.001) were independent predictive factors for prognosis. Blood PQ concentration was positively correlated with prognosis (r=0.358, P<0.001), with a mortality rate of 20.0% for blood PQ concentration≤1.0 μg/mL, 54.8% for 1.1~2.0 μg/mL, 64.3% for 2.1~3.0 μg/mL, 88.9% for 3.1~4.0 μg/mL, and 100% for concentration≥4.1 μg/mL. ROC curve analysis showed that the AUCs of blood PQ concentration were 0.922 (95%CI: 0.888~0.956), 0.912 (95%CI : 0.834~0.990), 0.813 (95%CI: 0.465~1.000), and 0.522 (95%CI: 0.207~0.837) for ≤4.0 h, 4.1~8.0 h, 8.1~12.0 h, and ≥12 1 h. Conclusion The predictive value of blood PQ concentrations is influenced by the time from ingestion to blood collection, the predictive value of PQ concentration within 4 h is good, and poor beyond 8 h

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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-12-19
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