基于决策曲线和剂量反应分析评估NLR对ICU肺部感染重症患者预后的预测价值
DOI:
作者:
作者单位:

作者简介:

通讯作者:

基金项目:

四川省中医药管理局科学技术研究专项课题(2023MS543)


The prognostic value of NLR in ICU patients with severe pulmonary infection based on decision curve and dose-response analysis
Author:
Affiliation:

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 图/表
  • |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献
  • |
  • 相似文献
  • |
  • 引证文献
  • |
  • 资源附件
    摘要:

    目的 探讨中性粒细胞与淋巴细胞比值(NLR)对重症监护室(ICU)肺部感染重症患者预后的预测价值。方法 选取2020年5月—2022年5月本院收治的102名肺部感染重症患者作为研究对象,根据患者在治疗后第28天时的生存情况将其分为对照组(在治疗后28 d内存活的患者,n=51)和观察组(在治疗后28 d内死亡的患者,n=51)。多因素Logistic回归分析影响肺部感染预后的危险因素,建立预测评分模型,并进行模型评价。利用Logistic回归、限制性立方样条模型和临床决策(DCA)曲线分析评估NLR对ICU肺部感染重症患者预后的临床预测价值。结果 发热持续时间>7 d、住院时间、体温、乳酸脱氢酶(LDH)、IL-6、NLR、干扰素-γ(IFN-γ)、肺实变均为肺部感染重症患者预后的独立危险因素(P<0.05)。验证前后证明,该预测评分模型具有较高的精准度,良好的有效性、安全性和实用性。NLR连续性变化与肺部感染重症患者预后的关联强度呈非线性剂量反应关系(P<0.01)。NLR与肺部感染重症患者预后大致呈显著正相关,且当NLR>50时,随着NLR上升,肺部感染重症患者预后概率显著上升。DCA曲线分析结果显示,NLR对肺部感染重症患者预后的预测具有重要临床价值。结论 NLR是肺部感染重症患者预后的独立危险因素,与肺部感染重症患者预后的关联强度呈非线性剂量反应关系

    Abstract:

    Objective To analyze the neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR)'s prognostic value in patients with prognosis of severe pulmonary infection in intensive care unit (ICU). Methods A total of 102 severe patients who were treated in our hospital for pulmonary infection from May 2020 to May 2022 were selected as the research subjects. According to the survival status of the patients on day 28 after treatment, they were divided into a control group (patients who survived on day 28 after treatment, n=51) and a study group (patients who died within 28 days after treatment, n=51). The risk factors affecting the prognosis of severe pulmonary infection patients were determined by Logistic regression analysis, established the prediction score model, and evaluated the model. Logistic regression, restricted cubic spline model and clinical decision (DCA) curve were used to evaluate the clinical prognostic value of dimensional NLR in ICU patients with severe pulmonary infection.Results Duration of heating >7 d, length of hospital stay >7 d, body temperature, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), vitamin D, interleukin-6 (IL-6), interferon-γ (IFN-γ) and pulmonary consolidation were independent risk factor for predicting severe lung infection(P<0.05).The best cut-off values before and after validation were 4.25 points. The evaluation results show that the predictive scoring model had high accuracy, good effectiveness, safety and reliability, and strong practicability. The intensity of the association between the continuous change of NLR and the occurrence of prognosis of severe pulmonary infection was nonlinear dose-response relationship (P<0.01). There was a significant positive correlation between NLR and severe pulmonary infection, especially when the NLR>50, with the increase of NLR, the incidence of prognosis of severe pulmonary infection increased significantly. The results of DCA curve analysis showed that NLR had important clinical value in predicting severe pulmonary infection. Conclusion The independent risk factor for severe pulmonary infection is NLR, and the correlation between NLR and prognosis of severe pulmonary infection is a nonlinear dose response relationship

    参考文献
    相似文献
    引证文献
引用本文
分享
文章指标
  • 点击次数:
  • 下载次数:
历史
  • 收稿日期:
  • 最后修改日期:
  • 录用日期:
  • 在线发布日期: 2025-07-21
您是第位访问者
网站版权所有:《西部医学》编辑部     蜀ICP备18038379号-4
地址:四川省成都市武侯区小天竺街75号财富国际18F-1号    邮政编码:610041
电话:028-85570072/85588403 本网站支持 IPv6    E-mail:xbyxqk@163.com
技术支持:北京勤云科技发展有限公司