Abstract:Objective To explore the risk factors of stone recurrence in patients after laparoscopic common bile duct exploration, and construct the prediction model. Methods A total of 102 patients who underwent laparoscopic common bile duct exploration in Affiliated Hospital of Chengdu University from January 2020 to March 2022 were selected as the study subjects. According to the ERCP Diagnosis and Treatment Guidelines (2018), the patients were divided into recurrence group (21 cases) and non-recurrence group (81 cases). Clinical data of the two groups of patients were statistically analyzed. Logistic regression model was used to screen the risk factors for postoperative stone recurrence. The model's goodness of fit was detected by Homser-Lemeshow test, and its predictive efficiency was analyzed using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves.Results There were significant differences in age, hyperlipidemia, number of stones, common bile duct dilatation and gallbladder duct dilatation between the two groups (P<0.05), but there was no significant difference in the other general data, stones or surgical conditions (P>0.05). The results of Logistic multivariate model analysis showed that hyperlipidemia and gallbladder duct dilation were risk factors of postoperative stone recurrence (P<0.05). The prediction model was as follow: lnλ(t)/λ0(t)=-7.399+0.793× age +0.975× hyperlipidemia +0.965× number of stones +0.835× common bile duct dilatation +1.043× gallbladder duct dilatation. The goodness of fit by Homser-Lemeshow test was as follow:χ2=4.689, P=0.790. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) of the prediction model for predicting postoperative stone recurrence was 0.801 (0.710-0.873) (Z=5.463, P<0.001). Taking 0.253 as the cut-off value, sensitivity and specificity of the prediction model were 71.43% and 81.48%, respectively.Conclusion Hyperlipidemia and gallbladder duct dilatation are risk factors of stone recurrence in patients after laparoscopic common bile duct exploration. The prediction model based on risk factors has good predictive efficiency for postoperative stone recurrence