Abstract:Objective To predict the risk of recurrence after interventional therapy in patients with arteriosclerosis obliterans (ASO) by constructing a nomogram risk model. Methods A total of 170 cases undergoing interventional therapy in our hospital from July 2020 to September 2022 were included as the study objects. General data of the patients were collected, and they were divided into a relapsed group (n=56) and a non-relapsed group (n=114) according to whether they had relapsed. Regression screening of predictors was conducted according to Lasson,and the risk prediction model was built with nomogram using R software. The ROC curve was used to evaluate the model, and Bootstrap was used for internal verification, and C-index was calculated to judge the differentiation degree and model calibration degree of the prediction model. Results Univariate analysis showed that there were statistically significant differences between the recurrence group and the non-recurrence group in diabetes, hypertension, smoking history, postoperative regular use of antiplatelet and lipidlowering drugs, operation method, length of calcification and other influencing factors (P<0.05). According to Lasson, six predictors of diabetes, hypertension, smoking history, postoperative regularity of antiplatelet and lipidlowering drugs, operation method, and calcification length were screened out by regression. A 1-year recurrence risk histogram prediction model was established using the above variables. The ROC curve indicated that AUC was 0.754. The C-index and Brier score of the original model are 0.765 (95%CI:0.687 ~ 0.842) and 0.172 (95%CI: 0.140 ~ 0.204) respectively. The C-index and Brier score of the internal verification after repeated sampling for 500 times are as follows: 0.733 (95%CI: 0.623 ~ 0.842), 0.189 (95%CI: 0.139 ~ 0.246). Conclusion Diabetes, hypertension, smoking history, regular use of Antiplatelet drugs and lipid-lowering drugs after operation, operation mode and calcification length are important factors influencing the recurrence after ASO intervention. This model can better evaluate the recurrence risk of patients after interventional therapy, and has certain clinical value