随机森林模型预测老年膀胱癌患者术后下肢深静脉血栓发生风险及预警措施
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北京市卫生科技发展专项基金项目(2019-2-612)


Prediction of risk and early warning measures of postoperative deep venous thrombosis of lower extremity in elderly patients with bladder cancer by random forest model
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    目的 探讨随机森林模型预测老年膀胱癌患者术后下肢深静脉血栓(DVT)发生风险及预警措施。方法 选取2019年6月—2022年6月我院收治的282例老年膀胱癌患者,按照7∶3比例分为训练组(n=197)和内部验证组(n=85),统计两组下肢DVT发生率及一般临床资料,训练组基于随机森林模型结果构建下肢DVT风险预警模型,并行内外部验证。结果 282例老年膀胱癌患者下肢DVT发生率为15.10%(42/278)。训练组和内部验证组中,DVT阳性及阴性患者在年龄、BMI、麻醉时间、合并糖尿病、合并高脂血症、术前纤维蛋白原(FIB)、D二聚体(D-D)、白蛋白(ALB)水平及Caprini风险评估模型(RAM)评分、术后卧床时间比较差异有统计学意义(均P<0.05);确认属性重要性评分前8变量纳入随机森林模型算法中建立下肢DVT风险预警模型,变量重要性评分依次为术前D-D、术前FIB、术前ALB、术前RAM评分、年龄、合并糖尿病、术后卧床时间、合并高脂血症,随机森林模型预测效能为0.933,经外部验证显示模型预测结果与实际结果具有较高一致性。结论 随机森林模型对老年膀胱癌患者术后下肢DVT具有较好的预测能力,综合考虑年龄、合并糖尿病、术后卧床时间、合并高脂血症及术前D-D、FIB、ALB与RAM评分等因素有利于预防下肢DVT发生,具有临床指导意义

    Abstract:

    Objective To investigate the risk of postoperative deep vein thrombosis (DVT) of lower extremity in elderly patients with bladder cancer, and determine reasonable early warning measures based on the results of random forest model, so as to provide reference for clinical prevention and treatment.Methods 282 elderly patients with bladder cancer admitted to our hospital from June 2019 to June 2022 were selected and divided into the training group (n=197) and the internal verification group (n=85) according to a ratio of 7∶3.The incidence rate and general clinical data of lower limb DVT in the two groups were analyzed. The training group constructed a lower limb DVT risk warning model based on the results of random forest model, parallel internal and external validation. Results The incidence of lower extremity DVT in 282 elderly patients with bladder cancer was 15.10% (42/278). Among the training group and the internal verification group, there were significant differences in age, BMI, anesthesia time, diabetes mellitus, hyperlipidemia, preoperative FIB, D-D, ALB levels, RAM score and postoperative bed time in DVT-positive and DVT-negative groups (P<0.05)The first 8 variables of attribute importance score were included in the Random forest model algorithm to establish the lower limb DVT risk warning model. The importance scores of variables were successively preoperative D-D, preoperative FIB, preoperative ALB, preoperative RAM score, age, diabetes mellitus, postoperative bed time, and hyperlipidemia. The prediction efficiency of random Forest model was 0.933. The external verification shows that the predicted results of the model are in good agreement with the actual results.Conclusion The random forest model has a good ability to predict postoperative DVT of lower limb in elderly patients with bladder cancer. Considering age, diabetes mellitus, postoperative bed time, hyperlipidemia, preoperative D-D, FIB, ALB and RAM scores and other factors, it is beneficial to prevent the occurrence of lower limb DVT, which has clinical significance

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  • 在线发布日期: 2024-06-18
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