急性百草枯中毒治疗后急性肾损伤的高危因素及预后模型构建
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广东省基础与应用基础研究基金项目(2021A1515010728);广东省医学科学技术研究基金项目(202011918159506);广东省2021年医学科研基金项目(B2021376)


Construction of high risk factors and prognosis model of renal injury after treatment of acute paraquat poisoning
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    摘要:

    目的 探究急性百草枯中毒治疗后发生急性肾损伤(AKI)的高危因素,并建立预后风险的预测模型,从而为急性百草枯中毒治疗后出现AKI的高危因素确定及预后效果的预测提供参考。方法 采用回顾性分析方法研究2017年9月—2021年4月因急性百草枯中毒在广州市第十二人民医院住院治疗的患者200例临床资料,依据患者在疗程中是否出现AKI进行分组,对比分析两组患者一般社会学资料、临床指标、疾病史、流行病学资料、影像学检查等临床资料,将其纳入单因素和多因素Logistics回归分析,探究其高危因素。并将多因素Logistics回归分析结果中有统计学意义的指标纳入列线图,建立预后效果的预测预警模型。结果 在200例急性百草枯中毒的患者中,出现AKI的患者为154例,发生率为77.00%。在出现AKI的患者中预后良好者为41例,占26.62%,预后不佳者为113例,73.37%。多因素Logistics回归分析结果显示,年龄(OR=3.547,95%CI:2.108~9.723)、百草枯剂量(OR=12.425,95%CI:5.294~19.837)、中毒至入院时间(OR=8.659,95%CI: 4.123~12.346)、APACHEⅡ(OR=4.821,95%CI:2.163~9.825)、合并严重疾病(OR=8.518,95%CI: 3.327~11.637)、血浆乳酸(OR=2.225,95%CI:1.037~4.338)、合并酸中毒(OR=3.634,95%CI:2.317~10.527)、合并离子紊乱(OR=3.725,95%CI:1.525~8.658)出现AKI预后不佳的可能性更高,血红蛋白(OR=0.753,95%CI:0.418~0.939)则是急性百草枯中毒AKI预后的保护性因素。结论 中老年人、合并严重疾病的急性百草枯中毒治疗后急性肾损伤患者预后较差;服药量较高、就医时间较晚是急性百草枯中毒后AKI患者预后不佳的独立危险因素,血红蛋白是AKI患者预后的保护性因素

    Abstract:

    Objective To explore the high-risk factors of renal injury after treatment of acute paraquat poisoning and establish a prediction model of prognostic risk and provide data reference for determining the high-risk factors of renal injury after treatment of acute paraquat poisoning and predicting the prognostic effect. Methods The clinical data of 200 patients hospitalized in Guangzhou 12th people′s hospital due to acute paraquat from September 2017 to April 2021 were studied. The patients were divided into groups according to whether they had acute renal injury during the course of treatment. The general sociological data, clinical indicators, disease history, epidemiological data of the two groups were compared and analyzed. Clinical data such as imaging examination were included in univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis to explore its high-risk factors. The statistically significant indexes in the results of multivariate logistic regression analysis were included in the nomogram to establish the prediction and early warning model of prognostic effect. Results Among 200 patients with acute paraquat poisoning, 154 patients had acute renal injury, and the incidence was 77.00%. Among the patients with acute renal injury, 41 cases had a good prognosis, accounting for 26.62%, and 113 cases had a poor prognosis, accounting for 73.37%. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age (OR=3.547, 95% CI: 2.108~9.723), paraquat dose (OR=12.425, 95% CI: 5.294~19.837), time from poisoning to admission (OR=8.659, 95% CI: 4.123~12.346), Apache Ⅱ (OR=4.821, 95% CI: 2.163~9.825), complicated with serious diseases (OR=8.518, 95% CI: 3.327~11.637), plasma lactic acid (OR=2.225, 95% CI: 1.037~4.338) patients with acidosis (OR=3.634, 95% CI: 2.317~10.527) and ion disorder (OR=3.725, 95% CI: 1.525~8.658) were more likely to have poor prognosis of renal injury. Treatment measures should be taken to ensure the prognostic effect. Hemoglobin (OR=0.753, 95% CI: 0.418~0.939) was a protective factor for the prognosis of renal injury caused by acute paraquat poisoning. Conclusion Among the patients with renal injury after acute paraquat poisoning, the elderly and AKI patients with serious diseases has a poor prognosis. Higher dosage, later medical treatment time are independent risk factors for the poor prognosis of AKI patients after acute paraquat poisoning. Hemoglobin is a protective factor for the prognosis of AKI patients. Early detection and treatment are helpful to improve the prognosis

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  • 在线发布日期: 2023-12-20
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