基于血浆DPP4活性构建预测模型评估初次PCI术后STEMI患者2年MACEs事件的发生风险
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新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金(2019D01C107)


Construction of a predictive model based on plasma DPP4 activity to assess the 2-year risk of MACEs events in STEMI patients after primary PCI
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    摘要:

    目的 探讨基于血浆二肽基肽酶4(DPP4)活性构建与验证一个可预测初次经皮冠状动脉介入治疗(PCI)术后ST段抬高型心肌梗死(STEMI)患者2年内发生主要心血管不良事件(MACEs)风险的预测模型。方法 本研究为一项回顾性队列研究,将2015年1月~2017年12月我院收治的行PCI术的STEMI患者554例研究对象按照3〖DK〗∶1的比例随机分为建模队列(n=415)与验证队列(n=139)。应用多因素Cox回归分析初次PCI术后STEMI患者2年MACEs事件发生风险的独立危险因素。应用R软件(3.5.3版)构建预测初次PCI术后STEMI患者2年MACEs事件发生风险的列线图模型,并对该模型进行比较与验证。结果 多因素Cox回归分析结果显示,年龄、男性、Killip分级、血浆DPP4活性、糖尿病、吸烟史是初次PCI术后STEMI患者2年内出现MACEs的独立风险因素。对该预测模型进行内部和外部的验证,建模队列中AUC值为0.853(95%CI:0.832~0.874);验证队列中AUC值为0.831(95%CI:0.803~0.859)。Hosmer-Lemeshow检验结果提示该模型预测结果具有较好的稳定性。结论 本研究中所提出的列线图模型可有效地预测初次PCI术后STEMI患者2年MACEs事件的发生风险。

    Abstract:

    Objective To construct and validate a predictive model for the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) within 2 years after primary PCI. Methods This was a retrospective cohort study in which 554 study subjects were randomized in a 3〖DK〗∶1 ratio into a modelling cohort and a validation cohort. Multifactorial Cox regression was applied to analyze independent risk factors for the 2-year risk of MACEs events in patients with STEMI after primary PCI. R software (version 3.5.3) was used to construct a nomogram model to predict the 2-year risk of MACEs in STEMI patients after primary PCI, and the model was compared and validated. Results Results of multifactorial Cox regression analysis showed that age, male, Killip classification, plasma DPP4 activity, diabetes mellitus, and smoking history were independent risk factors for the development of MACEs in STEMI patients at 2 years after primary PCI. The prediction model was validated internally and externally with an AUC value of 0.853 (95% CI: 0.832-0.874) in the modelling cohort and 0.831 (95% CI: 0.803-0.859) in the validation cohort. The results of the Hosmer-Lemeshow test suggest that the model has good stability in predicting outcomes. Conclusion The nomogram model proposed in this study can effectively predict the 2-year mace risk of STEMI patients after primary PCI.

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  • 在线发布日期: 2022-03-23
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