Ⅰ期高危子宫内膜样腺癌术后患者Nomogram预后模型的构建
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Establishment of a prognostic nomogram for highrisk early stage endometrial carcinoma
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    【摘要】 目的 构建Ⅰ期高危子宫内膜样腺癌(EC)术后患者Nomogram预后列线图预测模型,并验证其准确性。 方法 回顾性分析2010年1月1日~2014年12月31日遵义医科大学附属医院腹部肿瘤科收治的Ⅰ期具有高危因素的子宫内膜样腺癌术后患者97例。采用Kaplan-Meier法进行单因素生存分析,Log-rank 检验比较生存率的差异,多因素Cox比例风险模型分析预后的独立危险因素。ROC曲线确定血液学指标最佳截断值。R语言构建Nomogram生存模型,使用一致性指数(C-index)及校准曲线(Calibration curve)评估模型准确度。结果 97例EC患者中死亡11例,复发18例。术后辅助治疗可改善其生存预后。病理分化、淋巴脉管间隙受侵(LVSI)、深肌层浸润、术后辅助治疗、中性粒细胞/淋巴细胞比值(NLR)、血小板/淋巴细胞比值(PLR)、淋巴细胞/单核细胞比值(LMR)是Ⅰ期高危子宫内膜样腺癌患者的预后影响因素(P<0.05),进一步构建的OS-Nomogram预测模型C-index为0.896,3年、6年校准曲线显示准确性较高;DFS.Nomogram预测模型C-index为0.786,3年、6年、9年校准曲线显示准确性较高。结论 列线图可较准确预测Ⅰ期高危子宫内膜样腺癌术后患者的预后,利于临床工作者对其进行随访或提供个体化精准治疗。

    Abstract:

    【Abstract】 Objective To construct a prognostic nomogram prediction model for patients with stage I high-risk endometrial carcinoma (EC) and verify its accuracy.Methods A retrospective analysis was performed on 97 cases of endometrial adenocarcinoma with high-risk factors of stage I treated in Department of Abdominal Oncology, The Affiliated Hospital of Zunyi Medical University from January 1, 2010 to December 31, 2014. Kaplan Meier method was used to calculate the survival rate, Log-rank method was used for univariate analysis, Cox proportional hazard model was used for multivariate analysis. The ROC curve determines the optimal cut off value for hematological parameters to assess the predictive prognosis and correlation with clinical characteristics. The prognostic nomogram was established by the R language software. The consistency index (C-index) and calibration curve(CC) was used to evaluate its accuracy. Results Among 97 EC patients, the metastasis and death of EC occurred in 18 and 11 patients. Histologic grade, LVSI, and adjuvant therapy were independent prognostic factor for OS and DFS. The C-index of newly constructed OS Nomogram prediction model was 0.816, the 3 and 6 year calibration curves showed a good agreement between predicted overall survival. The C-index of DFS Nomogram prediction model was 0.786, and the 3, 6 and 9 year calibration curves showed a good agreement between predicted disease free survival. Conclusion The nomogram can accurately predict the prognosis of postoperative patients with stage I high risk endometrioid adenocarcinoma, which is helpful for clinicians to follow up or provide individualized precise treatment.

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  • 在线发布日期: 2021-09-30
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