诺模图对早期胃癌患者淋巴结转移的预测价值
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Predictive value of nomogram for lymph node metastasis in patients with early gastric cancer
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    【摘要】目的 开发一种预测早期胃癌淋巴结转移状况的诺模图,以避免不必要的胃切除术。方法 回顾性分析2015年1月1日~2020年6月31日徐州医科大学附属医院收治的332例接受胃切除术的早期胃癌患者的临床病理资料,其中236例纳入训练队列,96例纳入独立验证队列。单变量分析中的显著危险因素被进一步确定为多变量Logistic回归分析中的自变量,然后将其并入,并以诺模图表示。绘制内部和外部验证曲线,评价诺模图的区分性。利用受试者工作特征曲线(ROC)来评估模型的预测价值。结果 多因素分析显示,年龄、肿瘤大小、浸润深度、脉管侵犯和分化程度均是影响淋巴结转移的重要预后因素。诺模图具有较好的区分性,一致性指数为0863。外部验证指数为0867,支持这一结论。结论 我们开发并验证了预测早期胃癌患者淋巴结转移风险的诺模图,可以识别淋巴结转移概率较高的早期胃癌患者,有助于避免内镜切除后不必要的胃切除。

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    【Abstract】Objective To develop a nomogram for predicting lymph node metastasis in early gastric cancer (EGC) to avoid unnecessary gastrectomy. Methods This study retrospectively analyzed the clinicopathological data of 332 patients with EGC who underwent gastrectomy. Among them, 236 cases were included in the training cohort and 96 cases were included in the independent validation cohort. Significant risk factors in univariate analysis were further identified as independent variables in multivariate logistic regression analysis, and then they were incorporated and expressed in nomograms. And draw internal and external verification curves to evaluate the distinguishability of the nomogram. Use receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) to evaluate the predictive value of the model. Results Multivariate analysis showed that age, tumor size, depth of invasion, vascular invasion and histologic differentiation are important prognostic factors affecting lymph node metastasis. The nomogram has good distinguishability, and the consistency index is 0863. This was supported by the external validation point of 0867. Conclusion We have developed and validated a nomogram to predict the risk of lymph node metastasis in patients with EGC. This precise nomogram can identify EGC patients with a high probability of lymph node metastasis, and help avoid unnecessary gastrectomy after endoscopic resection.

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  • 在线发布日期: 2021-08-16
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