Abstract:Objective To build a multivariate factors risk prediction model of gastroesophageal variceal hemorrhage in patients with cirrhosis through analysis of hemorrhage risk factors, so as to make hemorrhage risk intervention to patients as early as possible, and reduce the risk of variceal bleeding in patients with cirrhosis. Methods In accordance with the inclusion and exclusion criteria designed based on researches, 96 patients with cirrhosis treated in our hospital from March 2014 to March 2016 were taken as research samples. 55 patients suffering from gastroesophageal variceal hemorrhage were included into the research group (hemorrhage group). 41 patients suffering from no hemorrhage were included into the control group (non-hemorrhage group). Survey and analysis were made on the basic characteristic indexes, biochemical indexes and image indexes of the two groups to screen out the risk factors of hemorrhage. Results There was no difference in baseline indicators between the two groups(P>0.05). The serum albumin, platelet, prothrombin time, portal venous diameter, splenic vein trunk diameter, size of esophageal varices, peptic ulcer, and red color sign were related to hemorrhage (P<0.05). Logistic regression analysis showed that red color sign, size of esophageal varices, portal venous diamete and prothrombin time were risk factors of hemorrhage (P<0.05). The serum albumin and platelet were protective factors of hemorrhage (P<0.05). The total accuracy rate of hemorrhage probability risk prediction model was 84.375%. Conclusion The patients with cirrhosis bad serum albumin, platelet, prothrombin time, portal venous diameter, splenic vein trunk diameter, size of esophageal varices, peptic ulcer, and red color sign have big risk of hemorrhage.